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Peaks and Valleys by Mickey Brown E-mail
Thursday, 14 May 2009

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The New Normal

Quick Facts:
First Quarter 2009 compared to Fourth Quarter 2008:
• The median sales price for Condominiums was $325,5000 – a decrease of 11%
• The median sales price for Single Family Homes was $805,000 – an increase  of 40% *
• The median sales price for Residential Lots was $165,000 – an increase of 58% *
• The median sales price for Single Family Homes for Mammoth only  was $885,000 – a decrease of 3%
(*The increase for both Single Family Homes and Residential Lots may be due to the fewer number of closings at a higher price point and doesn’t necessarily represent a trend.)

While this monthly column is entitled “Peaks and Valleys”, the reality may be that flat is the new normal. When you compare total market activity for first quarter 2009 to fourth quarter 2008, both the number of closed escrow transactions and the total dollar volume were nearly identical. There were 74 closed transactions this quarter compared to 77 the previous quarter with total dollar volume of $33.5 million and $38 million respectively.
What isn’t “flat” is the purchasing value of the dollar. Buyers are capable of buying newer and nicer properties, often with highly desired amenities such as attached garages and views. During first quarter of this year, 56 (or 76%) of all closings were under $500,000. Back in 2006, only 43% of all closings were under $500,000. With lower prices, tax credits and favorable interest rates affordability has improved significantly in recent months.
During 2006, the market share for the middle segment ($500,000 to $1 million) made up 42% of the market and the over $1 million segment made up 15% of the market. Today, the middle segment makes up 20% and the over $1 million is 4%. These same trends are also being reported statewide.
There are three segments of the market that have been especially hard hit and have showed little or no activity. These segments are sale of fractional shares, residential lots and mobile homes. What originally made fractional shares desirable was that the average vacationer could buy a resort property that matched their usage. Now with lower price points, it is often easier just to buy whole ownership.
What is still an absolute enigma is the price point of the listing inventory. I would have thought that after 3 years, the sellers would have realized that there is no “testing” the water when listing their property for sale. It has been proven that well priced listings will sell and all others sit on the market. Today’s buyers are very well informed on market conditions and would rather wait than purchase an over-priced listing.
As of March 31, 2009, there were 610 active listings versus 552 at year end. The median price for these listings ranged 20% to 40% over the median sales price.
In the coming months ahead, the unknown is the foreclosure of distressed properties and how that will impact values. Also, financing will continue to be a challenge due to tougher underwriting standards.
For me the bottom line is the market that we currently have is going to be the market we experience for awhile. I don’t expect to see any area-wide significant declines in home values and I also don’t expect to see any appreciation. The market has found its new bottom and, for the all-cash buyer who can close quickly, there are tremendous opportunities.
A note of explanation about the method that I use to gather data; while it is true that numbers don’t lie, it needs to be noted that there are many ways to collect data even for an area such as ours, which is relatively small when compared to Southern California.
The underlying premise is one of consistency, so that there is validity to the trend lines. Since 2003, I have used the same set of criteria for gathering data. The information is only for residential activity (closed escrows, listings, pendings) for Mammoth Lakes, June Lake, Crowley Lake and surrounding areas. If the information for Mammoth Lakes is significantly different then the whole, it will be cited as “Mammoth only”. The data includes both existing and new product. The data doesn’t include commercial or multi-family.
Additionally, I have chosen to use median price rather than average price. Median price is defined as that price in which there are an equal number of properties above and below – at times, there will be a large discrepancy between median price and average price. Lastly, since the beginning of this market cycle was 2006, the attached charts start with that year. As we now know, the height of the last cycle was fourth quarter 2005.

The opinions expressed in this column are strictly those of Madeleine “Mickey” Brown. Her blended professional career of real estate and finance provides her a practical and pragmatic approach to looking at real estate market cycles. She is the founder of The Resort Property Experts ® based in Mammoth Lakes along with being a co-owner of Resort Property Realty, Inc. Mickey has a degree in Business Economics from the University of California Santa Barbara. She is a licensed California Real Estate Broker and Certified Public Accountant. She can be reached a This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it or 760.914.0199 and would love to hear from you!
 

 
At Home In The Sierra by Robin Stater E-mail
Thursday, 14 May 2009

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So What Is Green?

We hear much these days about “Green Living,” but what is it? This phrase is  everywhere in the media, but who really in truly living “Green”? The human impact on the earth is vast and if each person can just do a little bit to be aware and to carefully use and dispose of products, it could go a long way toward helping all of us.

One small way to make a contribution toward being “Green” is to be aware of things around the house that can make a difference. Many do recycle and that as probably one of the first real conscious actions that the world and different communities have gotten together on in an attempt to live more harmoniously with our environment. Along with single family households, business have come a long way in helping to have less impact on the environment. I noticed recently huge bundles of cardboard behind K-Mart that were ready to be shipped out to be recycled. It wasn’t always this way. Of course, all of the cardboard returned equates to saving money as well by returning all the paper back to the mill for recycling and not having it go into landfill.

The amount of trash that we generate is one of the most important clues when trying to understand if we can live with less impact to the planet.  When I  think about how much trash is being generated by individuals and by businesses, I believe that with some conservation, there is so much that can be done to cut down on the amount of trash going into landfills.

In addition to recycling paper and cardboard, there are many ways to help lessen out impact on the planet around the house.

At home and at work, I try to be careful with the amount of plastic bags that are used and I consistently reuse bags over and over when possible.  When I get plastic bags at the grocery store, I keep them and reuse them or return them to the store. You can bring your own shopping bags to the store to save on plastic or paper bags. Using containers at home that are glass and won’t be thrown away also helps. Reusing aluminum foil when possible has always been one of my methods of trying to conserve.

At work, we recycle plastic packing material as much as possible and also paper products. I’ve been known to take bubble wrap out of the dumpster when I’ve found someone has thrown it away. Of course, every bit of packing material that can be saved will be a savings in money, too.

If people did not purchase as many containers, that would be helpful. It’s been proven that bottled water, one of the biggest beverage industries, has no significant advantage over tap water. The number of plastic bottles that are disposed of or even recycled  as a  result of our current mindset is far from ideal. You can refill water bottles at home to use during the day and in the car, by using a home water filter system to fill the containers. It saves money and the environment. That’s just one example. Our society is so fixated on fast food, processed food and beverages, we are filling our earth and our bodies with trash!

Awareness is the key.

At home, other ways to save energy and to reduce our impact can be by purchasing low energy usage light bulbs and also by turning the lights off when not using a room, or using timers on lights that need to be on at certain times.

Use insulating window coverings to retain warmth in the home or keep the heat out in the summer.
Keep your furnaces and air conditioners maintained and clean.

Clean your home with environmentally safe cleaning products. Additionally, use laundry and dish washing detergent that is safe for the Earth. All of these products are available at your local supermarket.

When it comes to home decorating and home furnishings, look for lines of furniture that are  made from recycled wood and from parts of antique wood products. You may even specify recycled wood flooring. Of course, the look of these recycled products is wonderful and, in addition to its saving energy, it brings something old into a new life.

It really takes an effort on everyone’s part to try to make a difference in this world. With the way things are now, it seems that you have more families living together and people being more watchful over one another. That saves energy as well, as fuel is conserved by more people traveling together instead of independently. Plus, it makes everyone more invested with one another and that’s what I think is necessary to keep our planet “Green.”

Robin Stater is the owner/designer of Sierra Design Studio, Inc. Established 1988 in Mammoth Lakes, Calif. The professional design team specializes in mountain home furnishings, Interior Design and remodeling homes in the Sierra. Robin has been building, designing and decorating homes in Mammoth Lakes since 1970. Allied Member, A.S.I.D., Realtor, Mammoth Realty Group. Visit www.sierradesignstudio.com or call (760) 937-4122 for more information.

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent policies and opinions of the staff or owners of the Mammoth Times. Reader response is encouraged.

 
Money Talks by Doug Magit E-mail
Thursday, 14 May 2009

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Got Modification?

 In a perfect world everyone would get a mortgage modification from their lender just by asking. For many, their home value has dropped and now they owe more than what the home is worth.
Well, this is easier said than done.

The first thing to remember is that most home mortgages have been sliced and diced into mortgage backed securities (MBS). Most homeowners are making their monthly mortgage payment to a bank or lender who is merely “servicing” the mortgage for the investor or investors who actually own the loan (i.e. a Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or other investor)

This becomes problematic as in most cases the bank you are sending your payments to does not have the authority to make any changes on your mortgage. They need to get approval from the investor or investors to modify the loan. There are recent changes with the president’s new Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan that could help more homeowners modify their mortgages by granting the authority to modify mortgages, for those at risk of default, to those servicing the mortgage.

Now, the other issue is whether a borrower is worthy of a loan modification. Let me play the devil’s advocate here for a moment. Yes, it would be wonderful if you could call your lender or servicer and say “My home value has dropped and I want to reduce my payment or the balance of my loan.” and they say, “OK, sure whatever you want.”

But the reality is that no one wants to lose any money, the investors (lenders) or the homeowners. However, if the investors began to modify mortgages without question, then everyone would want their loan modified in some way.

It appears for today, investors will do a modification (read:  take a loss) so long as the borrower can demonstrate they are in financial distress and experience some pain as well (read: damage to their credit as they are late on their payments). To get one’s loan modified, one will have to demonstrate that they are in financial distress and need a modification to prevent their loan from going into foreclosure. The investors will want to review all the borrowers’ financial data (i.e. tax returns and assets). If the borrower can demonstrate they have a financial hardship, the investor will most likely work with them on a modification to prevent further losses or a foreclosure.

On the other hand, if the borrower has sufficient income and/or assets and money in the bank, the investors would be hard pressed to lower the mortgage or payment.

For those borrowers who have other assets, they can use those assets to pay down their current mortgage so they will no longer be “upside down” or “underwater” on their mortgage.  Many borrowers did this back in the early 1990s and many borrowers are doing this now to refinance into a lower rate, taking advantage of the historically low interest rates and preserving their credit.

I know we are in unprecedented times, however, there are always cycles and this cycle won’t last forever.  If  borrowers find themselves “upside down” on their mortgage, they need to reach out to their lender to see if they can qualify for a modification of their mortgage or find out what other options may be available to them.

Doug Magit is a home mortgage consultant at Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, serving his clients nationwide for over 18 years.  He can be reached locally at 760-924-2270 or toll free nationwide at 800-520-2050. Also, e-mail This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it or online at www.wfhm.com/douglas-magit.
Information in this report is the personal view of writer and does not necessarily reflect the views of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage or the Mammoth Times.

 
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