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Researchers on mountain travel struggle with “new normal” data |
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Saturday, 17 October 2009 |
By Catherine Billey
Mammoth Times Staff Writer
Now that the one-year anniversary of the economic meltdown has passed (mid-September, 2008), analysts in the mountain travel industry are struggling with the “new normal.” That goes for Mammoth Lakes, too.
Mountain Travel Research Program (MTRiP) was contracted by the Town of Mammoth Lakes earlier this year to provide forecasting numbers for the local lodging industry.
MTRiP President Ralf Garrison reported last month that a comparison of this year’s data compared to last year at this time for mountain travel has created an “apples to oranges” comparison because of the impact of the recession.
“Last August, consumers were unaffected by the financial crisis and were shopping and spending in historically normal patterns,” Garrison explained.
“But this year, shopping and spending patterns have changed, particularly on discretionary purchases such as leisure travel, including mountain resorts.”
Lodging properties in Mammoth Lakes, however, have just begun loading their historical information into a database so MTRiP can begin providing numbers on advance bookings here.
“There’s some homework that our lodging properties had to complete in order to get historical information loaded to compare last year’s numbers to this year’s,” said Danna Stroud, Director of the Tourism & Recreation Department.
Once the historical context has been loaded, MTRiP will be able to track advance reservation occupancy and revenue allowing businesses to be able to compare their past performance to historical and competitive data sets in the future.
Garrison’s September report indicated that lodging rates continue to be significantly lower than a year ago as mountain destinations engage in pricing incentives to attract visitors to their destinations. Overall rates for the next six months are projected to be down 13.8 percent from 2008-09.
“Last year’s apples were more positive than this year’s oranges, and that makes this year’s data look more negative, especially considering that 07-08 was record-breaking for most mountain resorts,” Garrison reported.
“But once we get past this ‘crash anniversary’ last year’s recessed market conditions will be more comparable to this year, and the resulting statistics more valid.”
“The new normal is what everyone is struggling with,” Stroud confirmed. She believes the reality of the recession hit Mammoth last January. “How are we evaluating and determining success? Everyone has had to adjust significantly.”
MTRiP data is derived from a sample of 216 property management companies in 15 mountain destination communities across Colorado, Utah, California, and British Columbia.
Stroud said Mammoth Lakes will be included in the MTRiP statistics once the data is in place. |
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Last Updated ( Saturday, 24 October 2009 )
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